Architecture of Environmental Risk Modelling: for a faster and more robust response to natural disasters

Demands on the disaster response capacity of the European Union are likely to increase, as the impacts of disasters continue to grow both in size and frequency. This has resulted in intensive research on issues concerning spatially-explicit information and modelling and their multiple sources of uncertainty. Geospatial support is one of the forms of assistance frequently required by emergency response centres along with hazard forecast and event management assessment. Robust modelling of natural hazards requires dynamic simulations under an array of multiple inputs from different sources. Uncertainty is associated with meteorological forecast and calibration of the model parameters. Software uncertainty also derives from the data transformation models (D-TM) needed for predicting hazard behaviour and its consequences. On the other hand, social contributions have recently been recognized as valuable in raw-data collection and mapping efforts traditionally dominated by professional organizations. Here an architecture overview is proposed for adaptive and robust modelling of natural hazards, following the Semantic Array Programming paradigm to also include the distributed array of social contributors called Citizen Sensor in a semantically-enhanced strategy for D-TM modelling. The modelling architecture proposes a multicriteria approach for assessing the array of potential impacts with qualitative rapid assessment methods based on a Partial Open Loop Feedback Control (POLFC) schema and complementing more traditional and accurate a-posteriori assessment. We discuss the computational aspect of environmental risk modelling using array-based parallel paradigms on High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, in order for the implications of urgency to be introduced into the systems (Urgent-HPC).Comment: 12 pages, 1 figure, 1 text box, presented at the 3rd Conference of Computational Interdisciplinary Sciences (CCIS 2014), Asuncion, Paragua

Understanding a Version of Multivariate Symmetric Uncertainty to assist in Feature Selection

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of the multivariate symmetric uncertainty (MSU) measure through the use of statistical simulation techniques under various mixes of informative and non-informative randomly generated features. Experiments show how the number of attributes, their cardinalities, and the sample size affect the MSU. We discovered a condition that preserves good quality in the MSU under different combinations of these three factors, providing a new useful criterion to help drive the process of dimension reduction

Breve reflexión sobre el Año Internacional de la Astronomía: motivación para las matemáticas y las ciencias

El presente trabajo presenta una breve descripción del Año Internacional de la Astronomía 2009 y su connotación en el Paraguay. Año decretado como de interés educativo, cultural y científico; y se constituyó en un motor para la articulación de eventos seminales de iniciación, restructuración y motivación a la ciencia. También, presentamos una breve descripción de las Olimpiadas Latinoamericanas de Astronomía y Astronáutica que surgió como un mecanismo de comunicación e integración regional. En lo que respecta al Paraguay, la Olimpiada Paraguaya de Astronomía y Astronáutica - OPAA y varios otros eventos del AIA2009, se han enmarcado en la estructura organizacional y han seguido los delineamientos de las Olimpiadas Matemáticas. Presentamos algunas lecciones aprendidas a lo largo de este año. Este texto es de carácter por sobre todo divulgativo

Feature Selection: A perspective on inter-attribute cooperation

High-dimensional datasets depict a challenge for learning tasks in data mining and machine learning. Feature selection is an effective technique in dealing with dimensionality reduction. It is often an essential data processing step prior to applying a learning algorithm. Over the decades, filter feature selection methods have evolved from simple univariate relevance ranking algorithms to more sophisticated relevance-redundancy trade-offs and to multivariate dependencies-based approaches in recent years. This tendency to capture multivariate dependence aims at obtaining unique information about the class from the intercooperation among features. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the state-of-the-art work on filter feature selection methods assisted by feature intercooperation, and summarizes the contributions of different approaches found in the literature. Furthermore, current issues and challenges are introduced to identify promising future research and development.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figure

Modelling and control of Mendelian and maternal inheritance for biological control of dengue vectors

International audienceMosquitoes are vectors of viral diseases with epidemic potential in many regions of the world, and in absence of vaccines or therapies, their control is the main alternative. Chemical control through insecticides has been one of the conventional strategies, but induces insecticide resistance, which may affect other insects and cause ecological damage. Biological control, through the release of mosquitoes infected by the maternally inherited bacterium Wolbachia, which inhibits their vector competence, has been proposed as an alternative. The effects of both techniques may be intermingled in practice: prior insecticide spraying may debilitate wild population, so facilitating subsequent invasion by the bacterium; but the latter may also be hindered by the release of susceptible mosquitoes in an environment where the wild population became resistant, as a result of preexisting undesired exposition to insecticide. To tackle such situations, we propose here a unifying model allowing to account for the cross effects of both control techniques, and based on the latter, design release strategies able to infect a wild population. The latter are feedback laws, whose stabilizing properties are studied

A class of fast-slow models for adaptive resistance evolution

International audienceResistance to insecticide is considered nowadays one of the major threats to insect control, as its occurrence reduces drastically the efficiency of chemical control campaigns, and may also perturb the application of other control methods, like biological and genetic control. In order to account for the emergence and spread of such phenomenon as an effect of exposition to larvicide and/or adulticide, we develop in this paper a general time-continuous population model with two life phases, subsequently simplified through slow manifold theory. The derived models present density-dependent recruitment and mortality rates in a non-conventional way. We show that in absence of selection, they evolve in compliance with Hardy-Weinberg law; while in presence of selection and in the dominant or codominant cases, convergence to the fittest genotype occurs. The proposed mathematical models should allow for the study of several issues of importance related to the use of insecticides and other adaptive phenomena

The Lyman alpha Reference Sample: Extended Lyman alpha Halos Produced at Low Dust Content

We report on new imaging observations of the Lyman alpha emission line (Lya), performed with the Hubble Space Telescope, that comprise the backbone of the Lyman alpha Reference Sample (LARS). We present images of 14 starburst galaxies at redshifts 0.028 < z < 0.18 in continuum-subtracted Lya, Halpha, and the far ultraviolet continuum. We show that Lya is emitted on scales that systematically exceed those of the massive stellar population and recombination nebulae: as measured by the Petrosian 20 percent radius, RP20, Lya radii are larger than those of Halpha by factors ranging from 1 to 3.6, with an average of 2.4. The average ratio of Lya-to-FUV radii is 2.9. This suggests that much of the Lya light is pushed to large radii by resonance scattering. Defining the "Relative Petrosian Extension" of Lya compared to Halpha, \xi_ext = RP20_Lya / RP20_Ha, we find \xi_ext to be uncorrelated with total Lya luminosity. However \xi_ext is strongly correlated with quantities that scale with dust content, in the sense that a low dust abundance is a necessary requirement (although not the only one) in order to spread Lya photons throughout the interstellar medium and drive a large extended Lya halo.Comment: Published in ApJ Letters ~~ 6 pages using emulateapj, 4 figures ~~ Higher-resolution, larger, nicer jpeg versions of Figures 1 and 2 can be found here: http://xayes.org/pub/press_lars.htm

The Lyman Alpha Reference Sample: V. The impact of neutral ISM kinematics and geometry on Lyman Alpha escape

We present high-resolution far-UV spectroscopy of the 14 galaxies of the Lyman Alpha Reference Sample; a sample of strongly star-forming galaxies at low redshifts ($0.028 < z < 0.18$). We compare the derived properties to global properties derived from multi band imaging and 21 cm HI interferometry and single dish observations, as well as archival optical SDSS spectra. Besides the Lyman $\alpha$ line, the spectra contain a number of metal absorption features allowing us to probe the kinematics of the neutral ISM and evaluate the optical depth and and covering fraction of the neutral medium as a function of line-of-sight velocity. Furthermore, we show how this, in combination with precise determination of systemic velocity and good Ly$\alpha$ spectra, can be used to distinguish a model in which separate clumps together fully cover the background source, from the "picket fence" model named by Heckman et al. (2011). We find that no one single effect dominates in governing Ly$\alpha$ radiative transfer and escape. Ly$\alpha$ escape in our sample coincides with a maximum velocity-binned covering fraction of $\lesssim 0.9$ and bulk outflow velocities of $\gtrsim 50$ km s$^{-1}$, although a number of galaxies show these characteristics and yet little or no Ly$\alpha$ escape. We find that Ly$\alpha$ peak velocities, where available, are not consistent with a strong backscattered component, but rather with a simpler model of an intrinsic emission line overlaid by a blueshifted absorption profile from the outflowing wind. Finally, we find a strong anticorrelation between H$\alpha$ equivalent width and maximum velocity-binned covering factor, and propose a heuristic explanatory model.Comment: 28 pages, 19 figures, 5 table

The Lyman Alpha Reference Sample: III. Properties of the Neutral ISM from GBT and VLA Observations

We present new H I imaging and spectroscopy of the 14 UV-selected star-forming galaxies in the Lyman Alpha Reference Sample (LARS), aimed for a detailed study of the processes governing the production, propagation, and escape of Ly$\alpha$ photons. New H I spectroscopy, obtained with the 100m Green Bank Telescope (GBT), robustly detects the H I spectral line in 11 of the 14 observed LARS galaxies (although the profiles of two of the galaxies are likely confused by other sources within the GBT beam); the three highest redshift galaxies are not detected at our current sensitivity limits. The GBT profiles are used to derive fundamental H I line properties of the LARS galaxies. We also present new pilot H I spectral line imaging of 5 of the LARS galaxies obtained with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA). This imaging localizes the H I gas and provides a measurement of the total H I mass in each galaxy. In one system, LARS 03 (UGC 8335 or Arp 238), VLA observations reveal an enormous tidal structure that extends over 160 kpc from the main interacting systems and that contains $>$10$^9$ M$_{\odot}$ of H I. We compare various H I properties with global Ly$\alpha$ quantities derived from HST measurements. The measurements of the Ly$\alpha$ escape fraction are coupled with the new direct measurements of H I mass and significantly disturbed H I velocities. Our robustly detected sample reveals that both total H I mass and linewidth are tentatively correlated with key Ly$\alpha$ tracers. Further, on global scales, these data support a complex coupling between Ly$\alpha$ propagation and the H I properties of the surrounding medium.Comment: Preprint form, 16 figures, accepted in Ap